Feigin: Lukashenka Is Next
- 25.09.2024, 15:01
There is a real threat to the Belarusian dictator.
Russian lawyer and famous blogger Mark Feigin spoke about what Lukashenka is really afraid of.
The fate of the Belarusian regime and Lukashenka personally completely depends on the outcome of the war in Ukraine, and your ruler understands this. In particular, he connects his fate with this," Mark Feigin expressed his opinion on the Ordinary Morning show. "Figuratively speaking, if Moscow loses or Putin is gone, then it is absolutely obvious that Lukashenka is next. He interconnects these things.
Yes, the outcome of the war in Ukraine is not predetermined, in terms of how events will turn out, whether they will come to negotiations from one or another position. But in any case, Lukashenka has reasons to be afraid, there are reasons for nervousness because Moscow does not particularly like him either."
Feigin explained what he considers a real threat to the Belarusian dictator.
"He keeps talking about his military service and keeps putting on this huge cap with a brim, constantly demonstrating some kind of mobilization. And this is no different from the same statement that he is preparing for war, that there will be war.
I don’t think that anything significant threatens the Mazyr Oil Refinery, although the war is nearby and some random things can happen.
But what Lukashenko can really fear from the outcome of the war is internal resentment, which can add up, since Belarusian units are fighting in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and inside Belarus there is certainly some dissatisfied part of the nine-million population.
Therefore, first of all, he is going to fight with his own people. In this regard, it is possible that the drone that will fall on the Mazyr Oil Refinery will not be a Russian or Ukrainian drone, but a drone that will be launched from Belarus.
The fact that he began releasing political prisoners — this has happened more than once. In 2010, and before, and after. Then all this really happened, then it was possible to exchange the release of political prisoners for some mitigation.
Even US Secretary of State Pompeo flew to Belarus in 2020, they returned the embassy. But now the introductory information has changed, there is a war.
I will say more, with this story of the German citizen, who was brought to the death penalty with the expectation of an exchange, he worsened his situation.
It is clear that the guy was sentenced to death in the expectation of a pardon and further exchange in the scheme that Moscow came up with to return its spies, criminals and the murderer Krasikov.
But Lukashenka will not soon be forgiven for this sentence, even though he made some targeted releases of political prisoners. At the same time, he immediately took new ones and bargains. It is an endless conveyor belt.
Therefore, in a war situation, the West will not fall for this. I do not think that Belarus will see a warming of relations again.
Although he continues to take hostages, including foreigners. In Russia, this is a well-known practice, but there the scale is different, they have something to bargain with.
And this peripheral, collective farm comrade also wants to be related to big politics," Feigin said.