Lukashenka Is Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place

• 19.09.2024, 19:11

The dictator revealed his deepest fears.

Natallia Radzina, the Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org, became a guest of the YouTube show by the famous Russian journalist Yevgeny Kiselyov.

One of the topics of the interview was the latest statements by Lukashenka, in which he started talking about issuing a warrant for his arrest by the International Criminal Court with the participation of Lithuania:

— The main thing I heard in Lukashenka's speech, which was confusing and contradictory (however, as always), was his fear. Fear of sanctions that the West continues to impose, fear of the war that the regime, together with Putin, is waging against Ukraine, for which an inevitable reckoning may follow. Fear of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, because this is a very real prospect for the dictator.

I assume that we saw Lukashenka's reaction to the conference that took place last week in Vilnius. They were just discussing the crimes committed by Lukashenka. These are crimes against the Belarusian people, in fact, against humanity. Thousands of Belarusians are in prison, tortured. Crimes against Ukrainians are also committed — the regime's participation in the war, the shelling of Ukrainian cities from the territory of Belarus, which took place in 2022, the entry of Russian troops into the territory of Ukraine, Bucha, Irpin, Borodianka — this is all on the conscience of the Belarusian dictator's actions. Also, the story of the abduction of Ukrainian children. Lukashenka must be held accountable for all this. If Lithuania initiates the consideration of Lukashenka's case at the International Criminal Court in The Hague, this step can only be welcomed.

Natallia Radzina told how sanctions personally hit Lukashenka's funds:

— The gradual release of people from prisons is the result of sanctions pressure. Why can't it be removed under any circumstances? In recent months, 120 people have been released from prisons, the last time — 38 people. The names of all are unknown, as a rule, these people are under the supervision of the police, do not speak out in the press, before release, they were under enormous pressure in prisons. Nevertheless, we can welcome this step, I am glad that these people have been released.

However, this is the result of sanctions pressure, we need to clearly understand this. Even the current sanctions affect the regime. It is necessary to keep these sanctions and introduce new ones to force Lukashenka to release everyone. Because, as I said, there are no sanctions against the Lukashenka regime for political prisoners. Sanctions were imposed for the regime's participation in the war against Ukraine, the landing of a Ryanair plane in 2021 and for the attack by migrants on the Polish, Lithuanian and Latvian borders.

The regime is trying to manoeuvre today, it wants the lifting of sanctions against Belaruskali. This greatly affects the budget and personally Lukashenka and his family's funds. They incur colossal costs. After the imposition of sanctions on Belarusian potash and oil products, huge markets of Ukraine and Europe were lost for them. The costs of this are huge, the regime is moaning. I do not believe these fake figures that they provide about the alleged growth of the economy in Belarus. These are fake statistics, the regime is falling apart. And we'll see that in the coming months. While they somehow manage to keep the ruble exchange rate and wages. But I think everything will fall apart after the presidential election, which Lukashenka is in such a hurry to hold in February 2025, realizing that he has a very unstable situation.

Why did Lukashenka talk about certain agreements with Ukraine in his speech? The Belarusian journalist draws attention to the interview of the Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko, in which he talks about the secret agreements between Minsk and Kyiv:

— He said that there is a secret non-aggression pact between Ukraine and Belarus, negotiations are underway between Belarusian and Ukrainian special services and defense ministries. However, the same Fesenko says that Kyiv does not trust the Belarusian dictator and everyone understands perfectly well that if Putin needs to strike some blows at Ukraine from the territory of Belarus, this will be done, no one will ask Lukashenka's permission.

Therefore, I think that any secret agreements with Lukashenka will not work, and in Ukraine they are well aware of this. Lukashenka personally does not trust Ukrainians (he does not trust anyone at all). And here we saw his deepest fears. He understands that if there is any escalation of the war from the territory of Belarus, a response will inevitably follow. The Ukrainian side has repeatedly stated that if the Russian military or together with the Belarusian troops try to enter from the territory of Belarus again, then in this case, strikes on the border infrastructure will immediately follow. Lukashenka is afraid for the Mazyr refinery, which is within range of the AFU missiles.

Another thing is that Lukashenka, with his policy and loyalty to the Kremlin, exposes Belarus to possible retaliatory strikes. He needs to immediately get out of this war, and not threaten with the "Third World War".

Natallia Radzina suggests that the United States today can warn Lukashenka through his officials:

— Conversations directly with Lukashenka are impossible today. I do not exclude that the negotiations are being conducted by officials today. The same Natallia Petkevich, who previously also served as deputy head of the Lukashenka administration, negotiated with the Americans after the 2006 presidential election, when the United States imposed sanctions against Belneftekhim and there were talks about the release of political prisoners in exchange for these sanctions. Perhaps Natallia Petkevich, who returned to the Lukashenka administration, is conducting such negotiations.

But what is the subject of these negotiations? Lukashenka's statements are not entirely clear. It can be seen that he is warned that if he continues to actively participate in the war against Ukraine, this will be followed by an inevitable punishment. This is what I heard from Lukashenka.

Are provocations by the Russian Federation possible in order to draw Belarus even more into the war? The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org believes that such a step will subsequently lead to the defeat of the Lukashenka regime:

— We see that Ukrainian troops have entered the territory of Russia. Russian troops cannot defend their territory. A significant area of the Kursk region is under the control of the Ukrainian forces. If the Russians want to trigger the liberation of Belarus with such a provocation, we will only be glad.

Lukashenka constantly talks about the possibility of the entry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and international forces led by NATO into Belarus. These are his own words and scripts. If he keeps rushing like that, anything is possible.

How will the situation develop if the Belarusian army enters the territory of Ukraine? Natallia Radzina spoke about a possible scenario:

— First, I am sure that the Belarusian military will surrender en masse and will not raise weapons against the Ukrainian brothers. Secondly, this will immediately destabilize the situation in Belarus, and Lukashenka's regime is well aware of this. It will immediately begin to collapse. Nothing will stop Belarusian mothers who will lose their children.

If Lukashenka thinks that only his supporters serve in all law enforcement agencies, then I will disappoint him. The absolute majority of the population of Belarus, including the security forces, including soldiers of the Belarusian army, hate the Lukashenka regime and consider it occupying. Yes, today it is difficult to openly oppose the dictatorship, this is fraught with immediate arrest. But people still hate him. As soon as there is a window of opportunity, people will rise up. I am sure.

What Lukashenka will choose: power or betrayal of Putin? The Belarusian journalist believes that this is not the question:

— Lukashenka will lose power if he betrays Putin. All these 30 years, it has been held solely thanks to the support of the Kremlin. Any negotiations with the West are impossible for Lukashenka nowadays. The notorious swing between the West and Russia, on which he skated for 25 years until 2020, made him stuck between a rock and a hard place today.

Is the West ready, fearing escalation, to turn a blind eye to what is happening in Belarus and Ukraine? Natallia Radzina is sure that the leaders of the free world will have to make a decisive choice:

— All I need from the West is for it to remain principled and adhere to the sanctions that were imposed against the Lukashenka regime. So that the sanctions pressure does not weaken. As for the escalation, it is already happening today. A million dead (and this is according to minimal estimates) in Russia's war against Ukraine, destroyed Ukrainian cities, a huge number of killed children and women. Destroyed houses, kindergartens, schools, a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukraine. Isn't this an escalation?

Today, Ukraine needs to be provided with comprehensive support. First of all, military assistance. Supply all the weapons it needs, including long-range missiles. It is worrying that we do not know what will happen with the help for Ukraine in 2025. As for long-range missiles, they should be allowed to hit military targets in Russia.

Let me remind you of the victory scenario, which was once described by the American historian Yuri Felshtinsky. He said that Ukraine will win this war if it is provided with military assistance, including long-range missiles. The second point is if it will be allowed to hit military facilities in Russia, including Moscow. The third point is if Belarus is liberated, because this will deprive the Russian Federation of a base for attacking Ukraine and Western nations. I think that if these conditions are met, the threat emanating from the Kremlin will disappear.

Only political will is needed. Unfortunately, many Western politicians are cowardly today. But it will not be possible to end this war without decisive action. It seems to me that they will come to this idea in time.

The Editor-in-Chief of Charter97.org calls not to underestimate the protest potential in Belarus and Russia:

— The opposition remains both inside Russia and inside Belarus. As soon as there is a window of opportunity, these people will declare themselves. Before 2020, I heard a lot that nothing would happen in Belarus. There was exactly the same point of view In the West. As long as I talked to European politicians, I convinced them that in 2020 there would be a surge of popular discontent and a revolution, because people hate the Lukashenka regime, I was told that this was impossible. Various Belarusian pseudo-analysts said in all independent media that nothing would happen, and the most boring presidential elections were waiting for us. They said that the opposition was weak and split, nothing would happen. And then a million Belarusians took to the streets. Let's not underestimate our people.

Natallia Radzina is sure that as a result of the war, the regimes of Putin and Lukashenka will collapse:

— There is an understanding that a lot today depends on external factors. The victory of the Belarusian opposition is possible if Ukraine wins this war. This is not a shame to admit, there is a war going on.

What scenarios are possible in conditions of war? A people's revolution, when everything is cemented by repression and the country is under the double occupation of the criminal regimes of Putin and Lukashenka? That's impossible.

But both regimes will collapse as a result of this war. Neither Putin's regime in Russia nor Lukashenka's regime in Belarus will stand. They took a suicidal step, starting a war against the whole world, the dictators will lose it. We Democrats need to prepare for the imminent change of power.