Political Analyst: Lukashenka Afraid Of Rebellion
- 9.07.2024, 10:36
The people have disrupted the entry of the Belarusian army into the war.
The 2020 protests in Belarus and the lack of widespread support for the war against Ukraine among the population could have been a deterrent that prevented Lukashenka from getting more involved in military action, Ryhor Nizhnikau, a senior researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Relations, told Rus.LSM
According to him, the Belarusian authorities are afraid of provoking a new round of revolt of the Belarusian people. "And this is the main safeguard against a wider participation of Lukashenka in the war," said Nizhnikau.
Belarus is a co-aggressor country, helping Russia in its aggression against Ukraine, while at the same time "everyone understands perfectly well that the support is provided by Lukashenka's regime, not by the Belarusian people." However, these notions are beginning to "blur," and the question arises whether the West has a strategy towards Belarus. Nizhnikau considers this a big problem, as "the Belarusian issue is basically left to the will of the Russian Federation".
"That is, whatever Putin decides, so will be the fate of Belarus, and this, of course, in my opinion, is a strategic mistake of the European Union and Western politicians," said the political scientist.
Answering the question about the moral responsibility of Belarusians for supporting the war, Nizhnikau noted that from this point of view, the responsibility "is on everyone." "And on the politicians of the West, who have long been pandering to Putin's regime, (...) and on the Belarusian people to some extent." The researcher explained that the responsibility of the Belarusians is indirect, because until 2020 "they for various reasons contributed to the consolidation, strengthening the presence of this regime in power". However, from this point of view, one can talk about the mistakes not only of the Belarusians, but also of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski, who indirectly contributed to the Russian aggression, says the political scientist.
On the other hand, the 2020 protests in Belarus and the lack of broad support for the war among the population could have been a deterrent that prevented Aliaksandr Lukashenka from getting more widely involved in military action, says Nizhnikau.
"We are saying that the Belarusian people and their position prevented a wider participation of Belarus [in the war] and a correspondingly more difficult situation for Ukraine in 2022," the political scientist said.
He noted that with the onset of a full-scale war, repression in Belarus became tougher, while at the same time Lukashenka's regime showed its insecurity.
"Still, they realise that the situation is not fully controlled. Since the legitimacy of the regime in the country is in question.
The Belarusian authorities are simply afraid of provoking a new round of, I would say, revolt of the Belarusian people.
And this is the main safeguard against Lukashenka's wider participation in the war," said Nizhnikau.