Two Scenarios: Ukrainian Armed Forces May Launch Active Offensive In 2025
- 7.10.2024, 16:49
The Ukrainian military command is faced with a dilemma.
In 2025, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may launch an active offensive. There are 2 scenarios: the first is risky, but will allow breaking through the Russian defense for tens of kilometers; the second assumes local successes, but will not allow developing operational success.
Head of the Ukrainian Center for Military and Legal Research Oleksandr Musienko shared this assumption with Channel 24, noting that the military command is faced with a dilemma — which option to choose. First of all, counteroffensive actions will depend on our support and supplies from partners.
First of all, as Musienko noted, in order to carry out an offensive, it is necessary to fully staff and properly arm at least those brigades that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky constantly emphasizes. They exist, but not all of them are ready and equipped.
The next step is to stop the enemy. It is necessary to exhaust Russian forces and resources in order to obtain the overall opportunity to prepare for counteroffensive actions. What is important is that the offensive in 2025 may be “all or nothing” and develop according to 2 scenarios:
— trained reserves with maximum concentration of forces and high risks will try to break through the Russian defense line and advance tens of kilometers forward in one area, for example, in the South. This requires air support — missiles, etc.;
— Ukrainian troops will seize the initiative from the occupiers and counterattack locally at the tactical level. There will be a dispersion of efforts in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia directions in 2023. As a result, tactical successes can be achieved in one or several areas, but the chance to develop operational success can be lost.
— Choosing a path is a difficult task for our command. The first scenario is very risky, but it looks more attractive since it gives certain chances, — noted Oleksandr Musienko.
Several months ago, head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine Kirylo Budanov stated that Ukraine could prepare for certain actions in 2025. However, everything will depend on certain factors, the main one being the level of our support and supplies from partners.