Something Is Up For These Dates

• Ivan Yakovina
• 16.10.2024, 14:20

This is a major problem for Putin.

Israel is going to retaliate against Iran. At the same time, the Americans warn Israel against this, because they fear serious consequences for world oil markets. Well, a very important story is up to unfold.

From October 22 to 24, a summit of the BRICS countries will be held in the Russian city of Kazan, the Republic of Tatarstan. In fact, this is a summit of dictatorships or semi-dictatorships that oppose the American-centric world, this Pax Americana, against the current world order, which they do not like in many ways, they would like to change it.

Not only the BRICS participants were invited to the summit, these are Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, but also the leaders of other countries. For example, Vladimir Putin called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian there and he has already confirmed his presence, that is, he will be in Kazan from October 22 to 24. And Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman was also invited there. The Iranian leader, as I said, confirmed his presence, but the Saudi leader refused. That is, it turns out that the most important guest will not come. Why is the most important — a little lower, but now I want to, see what I want to say.

I fully admit that just these days, that is, from October 22 to 24, Israel will try to conduct or even conduct its air operation against Iran. Because many dictators will gather to visit Putin in Kazan, and the Iranian president will also sit there, that is, he will not be able to make an operational decision, being surrounded by his generals, assistants, and so on. He will be in another country thousands of kilometers from the scene. Also, Pezeshkian, in the event of an Israeli operation, will not even be able to return to Iran, since his plane will be shot down by Israeli planes that will circle over Iran at that moment. And in general, I think he will sit all this Israeli operation in Kazan, as if on needles. I think it is quite possible that in a week, about 22-24, all this will take place during the BRICS summit. And in this way, by the way, Israel will still show its thumb to Iran, which it is always happy to do.

By the way, the fact that Muhammad bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia, who actually governs this country, refused to go to Kazan for the summit, may also indicate that he knows that something is up for these dates. If I knew or suspected even that an American-Israeli attack on Iran was being prepared, as a result of which Iran could strike oil facilities in my country, that is, in Saudi Arabia, I probably would not have gone anywhere and would have waited. At least, before the election, the Americans would sit at home and see if any nasty things would happen that either one or the other would do. If my entire economy depends on oil, I'm certainly worried that the Iranians won't burn down all my oil facilities. And this same Crown Prince remained in Riyadh.

This is a major problem for Putin. Strictly speaking, in my opinion, this entire BRICS summit in Kazan was started just in order to bring the Saudi crown prince there and show him Kazan, show him the Kazan Kremlin. By the way, I was there, everything is quite beautiful there, there is really a huge very beautiful mosque, there is an Orthodox church nearby. And this, you know, is a good demonstration — look, Islam and Christianity coexist here, and no one kills or cuts each other, everything is great here. That is, from PR considerations, this summit was going to be held in Kazan and to invite the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, for whom all religious issues are traditionally of great importance. And now they would like to show him and agree with him immediately that Saudi Arabia does not increase oil production at least until the end of 2025. Why?

Because Russia will simply have no money left. The fact is that next year the Saudi crown prince can undermine the Russian economy the most, if he does not cancel the decision to gradually increase oil production in his wonderful kingdom. And Saudi Arabia has already stated that from December it begins to increase the scale of oil production. Now preparatory work is underway there — most likely, everyone will reopen some equipment, which means that from December they will begin to drive much more oil, and every month starting from December, oil production will increase in Saudi Arabia. Why?

The Saudis say that due to the fact that we comply with quotas, and other countries do not comply, we lose our market share, we lose revenues, oil prices remain at a low level for us. In general, we open these 'floodgates', we will produce a lot of oil and we will get the money we need at the expense of just the volume of production of this oil. Yes, it will be cheaper, but we will get much at the expense of volumes. And since you, all the other countries of the world, do not want it in a good way, it will be in a bad way. And oil in Saudi Arabia is worth almost nothing, so the country will make a profit even if oil falls very sharply in its price.

That is, Saudi Arabia will still remain in a very big positive position. But Russia will not remain, because it costs a lot of money to extract Russian oil in the permafrost of the Far North, and then this oil still needs to be driven through the pipes to the port of Novorossiysk, and then from the port of Novorossiysk on some uncertain tanker to drag to India. In general, it costs insane money, much more expensive than Saudi oil.

Therefore, it is super important for Putin that the price of oil in 2025 remains at least at the current level. The Saudis say — let it fall. Therefore, Putin called the Saudi crown prince to him, begging him to wait at least one year, because otherwise Putin's budget would collapse sharply and there would be no money for the war. And for Russia, this would accordingly turn out to be a huge catastrophe. But the Saudi prince refused. And this will, of course, cause huge budget losses for Russia. That is, there will be much less money in the budget than it could be.

Why? Because about 65% of the Russian budget in one way or another depends on the filling, on oil prices and, therefore, on the prices of petroleum products. If prices for these petroleum products go down, then the Russian budget is also reduced. And now, given the fact that the money just goes to the war, there is no money left for everything else.

Ivan Yakovyna, New Voice