Exchange Offices Shock: Dollar Has Never Been So Expensive In Belarus
- 14.10.2024, 8:57
What exchange rates should we expect now?
Last week, the exchange rate of the US dollar on the Belarusian currency market updated its annual maximum. Myfin.by examines what awaits the Belarusian currency market in mid-October in its weekly forecast.
Dollar at 3.30, but not for long
On Thursday, October 10, the exchange rate of the USD/BYN currency pair was fixed at 3.3011. True, on the next trading day, Friday, October 11, the rate was adjusted to 3.2832, but then there was also one of the largest trading volumes since July 2024 at 35.516 million US dollars.
At the same time, the Russian ruble exchange rate on the Belarusian currency market fell to RUB/BYN 3.4205 per 100 Russian rubles, by the end of the week there was a minimal strengthening to 3.4262.
The reason for such disappointing behavior of the exchange rates of the main currencies is still the weakening of the Russian ruble on the domestic Russian market.
Last week, the dollar exchange rate on the Russian over-the-counter market rose to its maximum since July 2023, and by the evening of Wednesday, October 9, the dollar exchange rate instantly soared to USD/RUB 100.1007. By the end of last week, the dollar was trading on the Russian interbank market at around 95.80 - 96.60.
Are oil prices the reason?
Returning to the Belarusian market - the US dollar exchange rate rose by +0.95% last week, since the beginning of the year, the dollar exchange rate has already grown by +3.33%.
The exchange rate of the Russian ruble on the Belarusian currency market fell by -0.92% last week, since the beginning of the current year by -2.08%.
The reason for the increased demand for currency on the Russian market is said to be the decrease in oil prices and increased demand from importers in anticipation of the winter trade marathon. It is possible that the high demand for currency was influenced by the increase in the recycling fee on cars since the beginning of October, in anticipation of which the import of cars to Russia in September reached its peak since 2006. But it is hard to believe in oil, since prices are at a fairly high level, and the change in prices is generally delayed.
Forecast for the week
Not much has changed on the Russian domestic market this week. Moreover, on Friday evening, October 11 at 21:00, the Russian government amended the decree on the mandatory sale of currency, lowering the sales rate in the first 30 days from 50% of revenue to 25%. That is, exporters will have less need to sell currency, which can artificially reduce the volume of currency supply on the Russian over-the-counter market.
All other factors remain in force, so there are almost no reasons for a significant recovery of the ruble.
On the over-the-counter Forex market, the most significant event will be the meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday, October 17. It is expected that the regulatory body will continue the cycle of rate cuts, the forecast for the deposit rate is -0.25% to 3.25%.
In general, this week the dollar exchange rate remains around current values and testing the level of USD/BYN 3.30 is not excluded. The Russian ruble is at annual lows.