'How Long Can Shoigu Conceal Breakthrough In Verbove?'
- 25.09.2023, 7:56
The AFU can isolate the Russian 56th regiment in Novofedorivka.
Ukrainian defence forces may have broken through another line of the occupiers' defence in Zaporizhzhia and stormed the village of Verbove in Polohi district on September 22. As of September 24, they continued to attack the enemy in the locality, using armoured vehicles.
The Ukrainian offensive north of the village could isolate the 56th Regiment of the Russian Airborne Troops (VDV) stationed in Novofedorivka from the regiments near Verbove itself. This is stated in the summary of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Specialists analysed Russian sources, which were the first to start reporting about the AFU breakthrough near Verbove. It is noted that geolocation footage of the fighting published on September 24 shows a Ukrainian mechanized infantry fighting vehicle within the extreme western outskirts of the village.
An informant related to the Russian Airborne Troops said that Ukrainian forces first entered Verbove on September 22 and continued to advance eastwards. He later specified that as of September 24, the AFU had already occupied half of the settlement.
The AFU is advancing north of Verbove and may isolate the Russian 56th regiment in Novofedorivka: analysis of the fighting from ISW
"This source accused the Russian Defence Ministry of trying to conceal Ukraine's tactical progress in Verbove, rhetorically stating, 'How long can Shoigu hush up the breakthrough in Verbove?", ISW stressed."
Several other Russian sources stated on September 24 that Ukrainian forces continue to deploy hardware targeting Verbove, including British M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs). Although some propagandists categorically denied any Ukrainian breakthrough in Verbove as of Sunday.
The AFU General Staff said that day that the defenders had seized new unspecified facilities near Verbove.
Against this background, the Russians started to panic over the possibility that the Ukrainian Defence Forces might isolate the 56th paratrooper regiment stationed in Novofedorivka from the regiments near Verbove. As early as September 21, a Russian source in the airborne troops warned that there was a "real threat" of the Ukrainian armed forces moving to the rear of the 56th regiment.
The AFU is advancing north of Verbove and may isolate the Russian 56th regiment in Novofedorivka: ISW analysis of combat operations
A day later, this source was already claiming that Ukrainian forces were within 7 kilometres of the 56th regiment's cordon and that it would be in a difficult situation unless its commander "decides to retreat from Novofedorivka to other previously prepared positions".
"We do not assess the likelihood that the 56th Regiment will be encircled, although Ukrainian forces could isolate it from the rest of the 7th Airborne Division if they manage to outmanoeuvre it from the north of Verbove and the regiment remains in its current positions," the ISW noted.
Earlier, Ukrainian military journalist Konstantin Mashovets reported that the Defence Forces are trying to bypass Verbove from the north.
The AFU are advancing north of Verbove and can isolate the 56th regiment of the Russian Federation in Novofedorivka: analysis of the fighting from ISW
At the same time, a well-known, pro-Kremlin blogger claimed that Ukrainian troops had improved their position near the flank of Novofedorivka. Another propagandist described how the AFU tried to attack an undefined tactical height near Verbove and deployed vehicles from north to south near Verbove.
According to ISW estimates, it could be a tactical height of 136.7 metres, located about 3.5km northwest of the village. This conclusion was reached there based on an analysis of digital data on altitude around Verbove.
NASA FIRMS/VIIRS thermal anomaly data collected on September 22-24 shows an extremely intense cluster of thermal anomalies north of Verbove.
"These anomalies, while not conclusive, are a confirmatory indicator of the fighting north of the village, they confirm Russian and Ukrainian reports of AFU activity between Novofedorivka and Verbove. ISW cannot assess the scale of this Ukrainian attack north of Verbove and has not collected enough geospatial information to map it confidently," the analysts pointed out.